Job Futures - The Standard Approach

Social Sciences Approach

Analyze the present
Project trends for future based on the present
Incorporate understanding of the

The Layer Cake Model of Job Opportunities

"There are more high and low-skill jobs in the service sector than in the goods sector. That is, the goods sector (natural resources, manufacturing and construction) is characterized by more middle-level skill requirements. The employment shift to services has resulted in an increase of highly skilled occupations, a decline in the share of middle-level skilled jobs, and a stable proportion of low-skill jobs.

"One model used to describe the skill distribution in B.C.'s labour market is the Layer Cake model. Imagine a three-tiered layer cake. It is not divided by the traditional measures of income or education because you can have some people in the top layer who have less education than those in the middle or some people in the middle layer who earn more than the top layer. In this model, the three separate levels of the layer cake are based on the supply (workers looking for jobs) and demand (employers looking to fill positions) of skills in the provincial economy."

The Growth of Non-Standard Jobs - The Jelly Donut Model

"With the shift of employment from goods to services industries most new jobs have been created by small businesses (companies with 20-50 employees), which are mostly non-union, or through self-employment. Small businesses are more prevalent in the service sector-both the high knowledge service industries as well as the traditional personal service and accommodation and food service sectors. The jobs that typify small business employment are part-time or short-term (contract work), and usually do not pay as much as jobs in large firms.

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This trend towards more non-standard employment means that you shouldn't expect a full-time, full-year job with benefits particularly when embarking on a new career. You will probably have to accept a part-time or part-year position. In many fields, consulting or self-employment is increasingly becoming the only option. It also means that any job search should include applications to small firms and a willingness to undertake contract work opportunities."

This is certainly valid

I'd recommend it to my daughter - a college freshman
My approach is to look at what may drive distributions - technology.

Update 10/19/97