B. D. McCullough
Professor
Department of Decision Sciences
and
Department of Economics
(courtesy appointment)







Contact Information
office: 230 Academic Building
office hours (summer 2009): Tu & Th 8:30-9:30am, and Th 5-6pm
phone: (215) 895-2134
e-mail:  bdmccullough AT drexel DOT edu
s-mail:  Dept. of Decision Sciences
             LeBow College of Business
             Drexel University
             Philadelphia, PA 19104-2875

Education
A.B. in Economics with distinction, Georgetown University, 1981
Ph.D. in Economics and University Fellow, University of Texas at Austin, 1989
Phi Kappa Phi

Employment
Assistant Professor of Economics, Fordham University, 1989-1994
Senior Economist, Federal Communication Commission, 1995-2000
Associate Professor of Decision Sciences, Drexel University, 2001-2006 (tenured 2003)
Professor of Decision Sciences, Drexel University, 2006-present

Teaching
Summer 2009: Introduction to Business Statistics (STAT 201)
Tu & Th, 9:30-10:50am (Randel 121) and 11:00am-12:20pm (Randel 121)
Texts for STAT 201.
Syllabus for STAT 201.
Th, 6-8:50pm, Business Statistics (STAT 601) (Pearl 101)
Texts for STAT 601.
Syllabus for STAT 601.

Recent Service
chairman, Department Personnel Committee (2004 - present)
assistant interim department head (2008 - present)
College alternate to University Faculty Senate (2008-present)
College representative to University Faculty Senate (2006-2008)
member, College Strategic Planning Committee (2002-2008)
chairman, College Task Force to Redesign Teaching Evaluations (2005-2007)

Research
Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (1999 - present)
Associate Editor, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (2003 - present)
Associate Editor, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (2004 - present)
Associate Editor, Foundations and Trends in Econometrics (2005-present)
Associate Editor, Computational Statistics (2005-present)

For a list of my publications: click here.

Referee for: Acta Biotheoretica, American Economic Review, American Economist, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Political Science Review, BMC Medical Research Methodology, Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, Computational Economics, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Computational Statistics, Econ Journal Watch, El Trimestre Economico (Mexico), European Journal of Operational Research, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Journal of Environmental Quality, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Income Distribution, Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of Quantitative Economics, Journal of Statistical Software, Mathematica Journal, National Science Foundation, Review of Accounting and Finance, The American Statistician
Progress: McCullough and Vinod (AER, 93(3), pp 873-892, 2003) showed that the AER's "replication policy" was a failure. In response, then-editor of the AER Bernanke (AER 94(1), p 404, 2004) adopted the mandatory data+code archive recommended by McCullough and Vinod. Other top journals have followed suit in recent years.

Some Economics Journals that Support Replication of Research.

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking*: 1996 --- Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics: 1996 --- American Economic Review: 2004 --- Econometrica: 2005 --- Review of Economic Studies: 2005 --- Journal of Political Economy: 2006 --- Spanish Economic Review: 2007 --- Review of Economic Dynamics: 2007 --- Canadian Journal of Economics: 2008 --- Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 2008 --- The Review of Economics and Statistics: 2008 --- AEJ Applied Economics: 2009 --- AEJ Economic Policy: 2009 --- AEJ Macroeconomics: 2009 --- AEJ Microeconomics: 2009

* Yes, the JMCB has an archive. No, it doesn't work. See McCullough, McGeary and Harrison (JMCB, 38(4), 1093-1107, 2006) and McCullough (Econ Journal Watch, 2007).



Some Economics Journals that Don't Support Replication of Research.

 

Quarterly Journal of Economics --- Journal of Econometrics --- Journal of Monetary Economics --- Econometric Theory --- Journal of Business and Economic Statistics --- Journal of Financial Economics --- Economics Letters --- The Economic Journal --- Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control --- International Economic Review --- European Economic Review --- Journal of Public Economics --- Journal of Labor Economics --- Rand Journal of Economics --- Journal of Environmental Economics and Management --- Journal of Law and Economics

BLOGS:

Things that the other Craig Newmark finds interesting.
Newmark's Door

Andrew Gelman's blog.
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

A group blog by some number crunchers from Harvard.
Social Science Statistics Blog

Self-explanatory.
STATS: Checking out the numbers behind the news

Economic analysis of current events, often backed by some superb macro number crunching.
Econ Browser

A finance blog that emphasizes the housing industry.
Calculated Risk

Economic commentary on issues of the day from a quant.
FalkenBlog

International Economics.
MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis

A bunch of libertarian lawyers discussing legal (and sometimes political) issues of the day.
(If ALL my blogs were about numbers, I wouldn't be well-rounded, would I?)
The Volokh Conspiracy

Occasional Columns that are "must read":

"The Numbers Guy" column by Carl Bialik at the Wall Street Journal. It appears every couple weeks. He also has a blog. You can register for email notification of new columns. The Numbers Guy Blog.

"The Financial Page" by James Surowiecki at The New Yorker. It appears every other week or so. Just check the Table of Contents at The New Yorker's website occasionally. The New Yorker

BOOKS FOR THE LAYMAN:

My suggestions for learning more about the interplay between statistics, decision sciences, and business. These books are written for laymen, not for technical specialists. Moreover, they are all very well-written.

Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos
"Mathematical illiteracy and its consequences" is the focus of this timeless book. Many simple examples show common pitfalls in thinking about numbers and how to overcome them.

How We Know What Isn't So by Thomas Gilovich
"The fallibility of human reason in everyday life" but not just from a numerical perspective.

The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
Under what conditions do groups of non-experts make better decisions than experts? When do committees make good decisions and when are they likely to produce groupthink nonsense? Make it a point to read Surowiecki's occasional column in New Yorker Magazine , which alone makes it worthwhile to subscribe to the magazine.

Thinking Strategically: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff
You don't need to know the mathematics behind the field of "game theory", but you need to know what game theory can do for you. What will your opponent/competitor do? What should you do in response? How to see through your opponent's strategy. Filled with examples from everyday life and business.

Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone
This engaging book tells the story of Kelly's Formula for asset allocation, starting with its roots in Shannon's theory of information transmission across noisy lines. Mobsters and racetracks; roulette, blackjack and Las Vegas Casinos; Michael Millken's junk bond operation and the implosion of the LTC Hedge Fund all play roles. For a light introduction to the quantification of Wall Street, this book is superb.

Moneyball by Michael Lewis
How did the use of simple statistics propel the Oakland A's from the cellar to the playoffs and do it more cheaply than other teams?

Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb
An excellent book on statistics and financial markets.

The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb
Taleb should have stopped after the first book. Don't bother with this one.

Freakonomics by Levitt and Dubner.
At times entertaining, this book won't help you to apply economics in your personal life. Before you read this book, be sure to read the discerning reviews by Ariel Rubinstein ("Freak-Freakonomics", The Economists' Voice 3(9), 2006) and John DiNardo ("Freakonomics: Scholarship in the Service of Storytelling", American Law and Economics Review 8(3), 2006, 615-626)